Thursday, September 25, 2014

"Climate change" baseline and adjustments

The "data" on "climate change" are critical elements of the debate, so it is critical for people to understand what is going on here.

1. Historical temperature data has been "adjusted" downward. There are explanations for this that make some sense, but the explanations don't hold up to examination in most cases. For example, the Federal Government has reduced historical global temperatures even during periods when the Arctic ice was melting, we had heat waves and drought, etc.

2. The Government is "filling the gaps" with interpolated data. In some cases, weather stations have been moved or terminated. In other cases, we don't have weather stations (such as much of Antarctica and Africa). In both situations, the Federal Government has filled these gaps with higher temperatures than surrounding areas, thereby raising the global average temperatures.

3. The 1979 baseline for Arctic ice is a peak in both ice extent and cold temperatures. This means that the trend after 1979 would be downward (for ice) and upward (for temperature) just to reach any sort of average. Climate alarmists have used these trends to extrapolate the future. It's a nonsensical approach, but one that President Obama and other government officials have embraced.

Here's a repost of some helpful analysis and charts that I recommend. The original links are embedded in the headlines.

Understanding How To Commit Fraud As A Government Climate Scientist

Government climate scientists typically start their graphs in 1979 – the year of peak Arctic sea ice, which was up two million km² from 1974.
1979 was the coldest year on record in the eastern Arctic. By cherry picking 1979, they turn a long term cooling trend into a sharp warming trend.

1979 was also the coldest winter on record in the US
ScreenHunter_3056 Sep. 25 06.30
Scientists use 1979 satellite launches as an excuse, but there was plenty of other data available.
Posted in Uncategorized | 3 Comments

Understanding NASA Press Releases

NASA announced a day or two ago that Arctic sea ice was “the sixth lowest on record”
What they meant by this is that Arctic sea ice is second highest of the past decade, and the minimum was up 60% from two years ago.
ScreenHunter_3043 Sep. 25 05.45
Green shows the gain in ice over the past week.
ScreenHunter_3044 Sep. 25 05.54

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What Makes Alarmists So Stupid?

One of the things which makes alarmists stupid is that several climate monitoring satellites were launched in 1979 – the coldest year on record in the US and the much of the Arctic. Then these geniuses draw straight lines beginning in 1979, and come to idiotic conclusions which would fail a middle school science exam.
ScreenHunter_265 Sep. 24 18.40
Posted in Uncategorized | 32 Comments

More Confused Thermometers

Last night WTOP said “upper 50’s downtown, and upper 40’s in outlying areas.
We know that is impossible, because NCDC says that UHI is only 0.1ºF. NCDC couldn’t possibly be off by a factor of 100. The thermometers must be wrong.
Posted in Uncategorized | 14 Comments

Glaciers Were Disappearing During NASA’s Coldest Years Ever

Gavin and his crack team of scientists tell us that the decade prior to 1922 was the coldest on record.
Fig.A2
The people who lived at the time reported something completely different.  Unheard of heat and disappearing Arctic glaciers.
ScreenHunter_3022 Sep. 24 08.50
ScreenHunter_3018 Sep. 24 08.26
1921 was the hottest year on record in Illinois.
ScreenHunter_2995 Sep. 23 07.23
One might come to the conclusion that NASA temperature data is propaganda, rather than science.
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Scientists Weren’t Always As Stupid As They Are Now

In 1951, scientists blamed shrinking glaciers, disappearing lakes, and frightened birds – on increased solar output. The Great Salt Lake lost half of its volume between 1850 and 1950.
ScreenHunter_3012 Sep. 24 07.50
Posted in Uncategorized | 6 Comments

Arctic Sea Ice Has Grown 300 Miles In The Beaufort Sea Since 2012

Green shows ice gain since 2012. Red shows ice loss.
ScreenHunter_3010 Sep. 24 07.34
Posted in Uncategorized | 3 Comments

Arctic Sea Ice Extent Is Second Highest In A Decade, And Highest In Nine Years

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