Sunday, September 28, 2014

The non-melting Arctic

We continue to see media reports about the imminent collapse of the Arctic ice, despite the reality that the ice is not disappearing. Here's an example of what the media is reporting, and why it is not credible.

Climate Science Integrity In A Death Spiral

Check out this spectacular piece of work in the Sunday Times
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THE Arctic ice cap has melted so much that open water is now just 350 miles from the North Pole, the shortest distance recorded, scientists say.
Let’s look at the fraudulent science one piece at a time.
The amount of ice has increased by 60% since 2012, shown in green below. Scientists cherry picked one spot which lied along a boundary between high an low pressure system, where the winds blew persistently towards the pole all summer. Most of the Arctic saw a huge expansion in ice.
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Next they quote Wadhams saying the Arctic will be ice free in 2015.
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His credibility melted away quite suddenly in 2013.
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Then they claim that the ice used to be five metres thick
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Unfortunately for these crooks, we have actual records showing that the ice was only two metres thick in 1940 – the same as it is now according to numbers derived from PIOMAS and UIUC.
 Polar Meltdown
The whole Arctic scam is a complete fraud. There has been a massive increase in extent, area, thickness and age of the ice over the past three years. The loss of ice from 1988 was due to winter winds which pushed huge volumes of ice out in the North Atlantic, and have since reversed – and the ice is growing back. These scientists are either incompetent, dishonest or both.
Temperatures near the North Pole were below normal every single day of the melt season this year, and first or second coldest on record.

Saturday, September 27, 2014

Naive activists

Click on the link below to see this nonsense in context. 


“The turnout for the march included communists, anarchists, socialists”

“The turnout for the march included communists, anarchists, socialists, democrats, unions, feminists, children, etc,” Chu said
“College students are the first generation of humans affected by climate change and the last generation who can change it,“ Chu said
All of the frozen Greenland Vikings and extinct Anasazi will be thrilled to learn that they weren’t affected by climate change. Apparently Steinbeck isn’t on the college curriculum any more, either.

Thursday, September 25, 2014

"Climate change" baseline and adjustments

The "data" on "climate change" are critical elements of the debate, so it is critical for people to understand what is going on here.

1. Historical temperature data has been "adjusted" downward. There are explanations for this that make some sense, but the explanations don't hold up to examination in most cases. For example, the Federal Government has reduced historical global temperatures even during periods when the Arctic ice was melting, we had heat waves and drought, etc.

2. The Government is "filling the gaps" with interpolated data. In some cases, weather stations have been moved or terminated. In other cases, we don't have weather stations (such as much of Antarctica and Africa). In both situations, the Federal Government has filled these gaps with higher temperatures than surrounding areas, thereby raising the global average temperatures.

3. The 1979 baseline for Arctic ice is a peak in both ice extent and cold temperatures. This means that the trend after 1979 would be downward (for ice) and upward (for temperature) just to reach any sort of average. Climate alarmists have used these trends to extrapolate the future. It's a nonsensical approach, but one that President Obama and other government officials have embraced.

Here's a repost of some helpful analysis and charts that I recommend. The original links are embedded in the headlines.

Understanding How To Commit Fraud As A Government Climate Scientist

Government climate scientists typically start their graphs in 1979 – the year of peak Arctic sea ice, which was up two million km² from 1974.
1979 was the coldest year on record in the eastern Arctic. By cherry picking 1979, they turn a long term cooling trend into a sharp warming trend.

1979 was also the coldest winter on record in the US
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Scientists use 1979 satellite launches as an excuse, but there was plenty of other data available.
Posted in Uncategorized | 3 Comments

Understanding NASA Press Releases

NASA announced a day or two ago that Arctic sea ice was “the sixth lowest on record”
What they meant by this is that Arctic sea ice is second highest of the past decade, and the minimum was up 60% from two years ago.
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Green shows the gain in ice over the past week.
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Posted in Uncategorized | 8 Comments

What Makes Alarmists So Stupid?

One of the things which makes alarmists stupid is that several climate monitoring satellites were launched in 1979 – the coldest year on record in the US and the much of the Arctic. Then these geniuses draw straight lines beginning in 1979, and come to idiotic conclusions which would fail a middle school science exam.
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Posted in Uncategorized | 32 Comments

More Confused Thermometers

Last night WTOP said “upper 50’s downtown, and upper 40’s in outlying areas.
We know that is impossible, because NCDC says that UHI is only 0.1ºF. NCDC couldn’t possibly be off by a factor of 100. The thermometers must be wrong.
Posted in Uncategorized | 14 Comments

Glaciers Were Disappearing During NASA’s Coldest Years Ever

Gavin and his crack team of scientists tell us that the decade prior to 1922 was the coldest on record.
Fig.A2
The people who lived at the time reported something completely different.  Unheard of heat and disappearing Arctic glaciers.
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1921 was the hottest year on record in Illinois.
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One might come to the conclusion that NASA temperature data is propaganda, rather than science.
Posted in Uncategorized | 5 Comments

Scientists Weren’t Always As Stupid As They Are Now

In 1951, scientists blamed shrinking glaciers, disappearing lakes, and frightened birds – on increased solar output. The Great Salt Lake lost half of its volume between 1850 and 1950.
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Posted in Uncategorized | 6 Comments

Arctic Sea Ice Has Grown 300 Miles In The Beaufort Sea Since 2012

Green shows ice gain since 2012. Red shows ice loss.
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Posted in Uncategorized | 3 Comments

Arctic Sea Ice Extent Is Second Highest In A Decade, And Highest In Nine Years

Posted in Uncategorized | 9 Comments


Thursday, September 18, 2014

Arctic ice

It has been fascinating to observe the facts of polar ice, both Arctic and Antarctic. Scientists have feared both global cooling and global warming, but they pretty much prove whatever the government seeks to have proven.

The Arctic is a perfect example. The "baseline" is the maximum ice extent (1979) that we know of. The ice was supposed to be in a death spiral, but the last two years it has rebounded.

In Antarctica, ice extent is at a record high. There is some melting on the peninsula, but it is caused by volcanic activity, not global warming.

Here are some examples:

2004 : NASA Predicted A New Ice Age “Within Decades”

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Posted in Uncategorized | 6 Comments

The New Normal In Climate Junk Science

Jennifer Francis of Rutgers is the key figure behind the global warming makes it cold idiocy.
Here are couple of her main slides
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She says that September 2007 was “the new normal” – when in fact it was an extreme outlier. The red circle below marks her “new normal”
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Her thesis has already collapsed. But it gets worse. She claims that open water in September is absorbing sunlight. Apparently no one told her that the sun sets at the North Pole in mid-September, and it receives almost no sunlight that time of year. In fact it is the exact opposite. Open water in September is able to radiate heat out into space – which ice covered water can’t do.
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Because of this, late summer ice loss is a negative feedback, not a positive one. These experts talk very confidently about topics which they fail to understand the most basic facts of.
Garbage in, garbage out.

Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Actually, we're in a global cooling trend

More reposts:

Prove Me Wrong!

Graphs like this would be trivial to debunk if my analysis was incorrect. Go for it.
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The number of temperature readings has increased over time, so that is not going to fly as an explanation for the decline.
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Posted in Uncategorized | 33 Comments

Learning To Think Like A Progressive Scientist

We hear idiotic remarks all the time from experts like :
We are having 100 year rainfalls every year now
It is difficult to grasp the level of stupidity behind that remark. The odds of winning the lottery are 100 million to one. For any individual, it is a multi-million year event – yet it happens all the time.
Same story with rainfall. If you have 5,000 weather stations which have been keeping records for 100 years, odds are you will have fifty “100 year rainfalls” every year.
Posted in Uncategorized | 16 Comments

What Part Of This Isn’t Clear?

Most of the US is cooling dramatically, and has been for 80 years. That is why NCDC and NASA make their massive downwards adjustments of the past – to hide the decline in US temperatures.
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Posted in Uncategorized | 7 Comments

Peak September Temperatures In The Midwest Have Plummeted Over The Past Century

Prior to 1950, 100 degree temperatures in the midwest were very common. They almost never happen any more.
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Posted in Uncategorized | 3 Comments

No Change In Average Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover For 25 Years

Over the past 25 years, there has been no net change in Northern Hemisphere snow cover. The amount of snow in autumn and winter has increased, while spring and summer snow cover has decreased. Note that there has been a large increase in peak snow cover, but no change in the minimum.
Climate experts normally only discuss the months which show decreasing snow cover, because they aren’t actual scientists.
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Posted in Uncategorized | 16 Comments

Understanding Global Warming

Scientists explain global warming in simple terms, which even us simple minded skeptics can understand.
Milder winter temperatures will decrease heavy snowstorms
Warmer winters and fewer cold spells, because of climate change, will decrease cold-related mortality in many temperate countries.
  • Global warming makes polar and lake ice disappear, makes winters mild, and made snow a thing of the past
  • Global warming makes Antarctic ice cover expand
  • Global warming makes winters very cold and snowy, and causes Great Lakes ice cover to expand to record levels.
  • They predicted this all along

Sun-driven climate

  Electroverse @Electroversenet Astrophysicist Dr Willie Soon says the climate is driven overwhelmingly by the sun, not by human carbon diox...