Monday, February 9, 2026

Correcting judicial bias

 

A Failed Climate Coup in the Courts

The Federal Judicial Center tried to pass off one-sided propaganda as ‘settled science.’

Feb. 8, 2026

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/reference-manual-on-scientific-evidence-climate-science-elena-kagan-federal-judges-f8e8604a?mod=hp_opin_pos_1

Progressive climate orthodoxy hasn’t disappeared in the Trump era, and the latest evidence comes in a strange tale from a surprising place—the bureaucracy of the federal courts.

In December the Federal Judicial Center, the research and education agency for the federal courts, published its latest edition of the Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence. A joint product with the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, the manual is billed as a resource for judges deciding complex scientific cases. But instead of a cure for insomnia, the new edition included some political pamphleteering.

The manual begins with a foreword by Supreme Court Justice Elena Kagan, who writes that while judges are “generalists” who often learn about scientific issues “through the adversary process, . . . sometimes it also helps to have a dispassionate guide.” Judges will do their job better when they learn from the technical expertise of scientists, she writes, and “the law will become stronger as it further reflects sound science.”

She’s right about that, but this manual included some unsound science. The guide advises judges on how to handle a case of disagreement between scientific experts. Judges should consider, “Is this a case of truly unsettled science?” the guide poses, “Or is it a case of relatively settled science, in which one party has recruited experts who interpret the evidence differently than most of the community?”

In case judges didn’t get the hint, the paragraph concludes this “sometimes occurs as a result of strategic manipulation from stakeholders who stand to be harmed if the public were to understand the true state of scientific consensus” such as in the cases of “tobacco, ozone depletion, and climate change.”

That trio gives the game away: Anyone who disagrees on climate is akin to those who deny that cigarettes cause cancer, A footnote to the section refers readers to “Michael E. Mann, The New Climate War: The Fight to Take Back our Planet” and “Naomi Oreskes, The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change.” These are polemical texts.

The manual’s Reference Guide on Climate Science was written by Jessica Wentz and Radley Horton of Columbia University. Ms. Wentz is at the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, whose “core mission” is to “develop and promulgate legal techniques to combat the climate crisis and advance climate justice.” She also works with the Environmental Law Institute’s Climate Judiciary Project, which says it helps judges “understand the scientific and technical evidence before them.”

The good news is that this one-sided advocacy caught the attention of House Judiciary Committee members Jim Jordan (R., Ohio) and Darrell Issa (R., Calif.), who wrote to the Judicial Conference of the United States. The “scientific” contributions to the manual “appear to have the underlying goal of predisposing federal judges in favor of plaintiffs alleging injuries from the manufacturing, marketing, use or sale of fossil fuel products,” they wrote. Why are taxpayers funding an exercise in judicial indoctrination?

Twenty-seven state Attorneys General—including from West Virginia, Florida, Idaho, Montana, New Hampshire, Texas and Wyoming—also objected to the manual’s bias and asked that the chapter be withdrawn. Article III of the Constitution “guarantees every litigant . . . the right to an independent and impartial tribunal,” the AGs write.

And, what do you know, on Friday Judge Robin Rosenberg, director of the Federal Judicial Center, wrote to West Virginia Attorney General John McCoskey saying “the climate science chapter” has been omitted from the revised Reference Manual. The letter offered no explanation, but you can guess.

This might be a case of all’s well that ends well, except that someone on the Judicial Center was either asleep or tried to slip ideology into what should be “a dispassionate guide,” to borrow Justice Kagan’s words. A public accounting of how that happened would be useful.


Saturday, February 7, 2026

Solar photovoltaics degrading faster than expected

 




Solar photovoltaics degrading faster than expected — 8% may only last 11 years | Jo Nova Engineers really don’t like phrases like “right skewed degradation with a long fat tail” But new data suggests that’s exactly what’s is happening in the global solar fleet, and it’s bad news for insurers, installers, and grid planners. One of the largest and longest studies ever done has looked at 11,000 solar panels around the world and found the same mysterious bump in unexpected failures. Surprisingly it didn’t matter whether the panels were installed in hot, cold or humid environments, the unexpected failures were still there. This suggests the higher failure rate is a systematic problem, not just something that afflicts those installed, say, in humid areas, or in the desert. UNSW study finds up to 20% of solar panels degrade far faster than expected By Casey McGuire Electrical Connection Lead author Yang Tang says this has serious implications for system longevity: “Most solar systems are designed to last around 25 years, based on their warranty period.” “But at least one in five systems degrade much faster than the typical rate and roughly one in 12 degrade twice as fast. This means some systems could lose about 45% of their output by the 25-year mark or reach the end of their useful life in as little as 11 years.” From the Press Release: This long tail is more than a statistical oddity. It especially poses a large financial risk for solar farms, where hundreds of thousands of panels are installed, since the data indicates there is a hidden cost associated with samples that do not perform as well or for as long as they should. Importantly, it has also been shown that the extreme degradation observed in these panels is not related to the climatic conditions they are exposed to – ruling out the possibility that the data was being skewed by samples placed in extreme environmental locations such as very hot deserts. Across the whole global fleet, the system performance degrades at 0.9% per year. The graph below plots the degradation rate of the energy produced from each panel. A few lemons are declining at 2, 3, or 4% annually. But the surprise is a big fat bump in panels degrading at 1.3% – 1.8% per year. That bump means that a lot more panels might fail within the warrantee period and need replacing. Maintenance costs and insurance bills will have been calculated on a normal curve, so this is an ominous sign that quite a lot of panels will not make it to the 25 year expected lifespan, and they won’t be producing as many kilowatts as expected either. So maintenance costs are going to be higher than expected. Electricity costs will be more, and to get rid of “the bump” will raise the prices of new panel designs. Someone will have to improve testing and throw away more dud panels before they leave the factory, or they will have to increase the safety margins on components. Given that hardly any solar plants are 25 years old, we don’t know how the degradation curve will evolve over time. It’s possible these early unexpected failures might grow into a fatter longer tail as the solar fleet ages. There are three kinds of failures: - Infant mortality –– when young panels die in the first few months due to manufacturing defects or transport and installation damage. - The long tail surprise — between 3 – 12 years. These could be latent microcracks that slowly spread, it could be moisture ingress, or hot-spot feedback loops. These are hard to detect and fix because they might look fine early on. There are also interconnected failures where one component depends on another. If the backsheet is damaged, water can leak in. These failures can multiply in a domino effect. - Natural attrition — panels are expected to wear out and age from 15 to 30 years due to the slow damage of UV radiation, and cycles of hot and cold. This is a predictable failure rate that warranties are designed around. It’s the second sort that wasn’t expected. And Tang et al point out that microcracks might not even cause a problem for several years, but gradually put stress on other components until there is a cascade of failure. Who could have guessed that equipment covering tens of thousands of square kilometers with complex electronic components would break in a thousand tiny ways? Read more:

https://joannenova.com.au/2026/02/solar-photovoltaics-degrading-faster-than-expected-8-may-only-last-11-years/




Building one gigawatt of solar capacity is not 'clean'. It requires around 18.5 tons of silver, 3,400 tons of polysilicon, and more than 10,000 tons of aluminium. Producing the polysilicon alone consumes thousands of tons of quartz, coal, petroleum, coke, charcoal and wood chips. Refining the silver for one gigawatt uses roughly 4,600 megawatt hours of electricity, the annual power use of 400 US homes. Producing the aluminum consumes nearly 2 million gigajoules of energy, enough to power more than 100,000 households for a year. Solar power is built with massive fossil energy inputs. Only the output is labelled 'green'. These are the realities campaigners never want to talk about.









Sun-driven climate

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