One of my pet peeves about the news media is the perpetuation of phony fears. A good example is Malthusian theory.
Ever since Malthus, doomsayers have claimed human population will outgrow food production. Instead, we produce too many calories! We've gone from a world in which starvation and malnutrition were major public health problems to one in which obesity has become one of the most serious public health problems in the world.
If there was any risk of food shortages, would we burn around 40% of our corn crop as ethanol? Would we feed vast quantities of grain to animals, thereby losing even more calories? Would we continue to use productive farmland to grow tobacco or crops for beer and other alcoholic beverages?
A new study mentioned in dot.earth demonstrates that agricultural technology has decoupled acreage from human appetites. The authors claim that "humanity has reached Peak Farmland, and that a large net global restoration of land to Nature is ready to begin."
This reflects my own observations over the last several decades.
Here's a graphic from dot.earth (http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/)
Population and Development ReviewAs agricultural production becomes more concentrated, growth in acreage devoted to food production has dropped far below projections, according to authors of a new paper. The graph shows how much land conversion has been avoided through this trend.
The authors of the study begin with this observation:
Expecting that more and richer people will demand more from the land, cultivating wider fields, logging more forests, and pressing nature, comes naturally. The past half-century of disciplined and dematerializing demand and more intense and efficient land use encourage a rational hope that humanity’s pressure will not overwhelm nature.
Here's a link to their lecture: http://phe.rockefeller.edu/docs/Peak%20Farmland%2018%20Dec%20lecture%20Ausubel(1).pdf
There are many reasons for optimism regarding environmental issues. The recognition of peak farmland is crucial for policy makers and citizens to remember.
Ever since Malthus, doomsayers have claimed human population will outgrow food production. Instead, we produce too many calories! We've gone from a world in which starvation and malnutrition were major public health problems to one in which obesity has become one of the most serious public health problems in the world.
If there was any risk of food shortages, would we burn around 40% of our corn crop as ethanol? Would we feed vast quantities of grain to animals, thereby losing even more calories? Would we continue to use productive farmland to grow tobacco or crops for beer and other alcoholic beverages?
A new study mentioned in dot.earth demonstrates that agricultural technology has decoupled acreage from human appetites. The authors claim that "humanity has reached Peak Farmland, and that a large net global restoration of land to Nature is ready to begin."
This reflects my own observations over the last several decades.
Here's a graphic from dot.earth (http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/)
Population and Development ReviewAs agricultural production becomes more concentrated, growth in acreage devoted to food production has dropped far below projections, according to authors of a new paper. The graph shows how much land conversion has been avoided through this trend.The authors of the study begin with this observation:
Expecting that more and richer people will demand more from the land, cultivating wider fields, logging more forests, and pressing nature, comes naturally. The past half-century of disciplined and dematerializing demand and more intense and efficient land use encourage a rational hope that humanity’s pressure will not overwhelm nature.
Here's a link to their lecture: http://phe.rockefeller.edu/docs/Peak%20Farmland%2018%20Dec%20lecture%20Ausubel(1).pdf
There are many reasons for optimism regarding environmental issues. The recognition of peak farmland is crucial for policy makers and citizens to remember.
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